A LOOK AHEAD: VIEWS OF TOMORROW'S FBI By Richard Sonnichsen Gail O. Burton and Thomas Lyons The law enforcement community of tomorrow will serve a society far different than that of today. Indeed, the differences may be so dramatic that law enforcement organizations which are not prepared for the future may be unable to respond to those communities they are sworn to serve. Change is inevitable, and it will impact on every facet of society, including its social structure, economic policies, demo-graphics, technology, and a myriad of other areas. Accordingly, law enforcement should commit sufficient resources today to plan for future changes. With this in mind, the Office of Planning, Evaluation and Audits (OPEA) was tasked to conduct a study intended to describe the FBI's working environment in the year 2000. The study entitled ``FBI 2000: A Law Enforcement View'' was developed to provide senior FBI management with the perceptions of other Federal, State and local law enforcement officers about the changing relationships between themselves and the FBI of the future. At the outset, OPEA conducted extensive interviews and surveys of senior FBI executives to determine issues that will face the FBI in the future. Issues pertaining to budget, personnel, technology, science, and international investigations were among those raised during this preliminary internal assessment phase. With this internal view as a framework for the study, OPEA began the external data collection phase. The strategy included conducting interviews with law enforcement executives, academicians, and criminal justice consultants. OPEA selected interview sites that provided a geographical cross section of the United States and key international areas. Selection of specific interviewees was made after consultation with FBI Training Academy personnel, respected academicians and FBI field division managers. Criteria for interviewee selection relied heavily on a consensus perception of the progressiveness each individual institution demonstrated. OPEA Special Agents visited, in the United States and internationally, 50 different law enforcement agencies, 9 colleges/universities, and 4 criminal justice consulting firms. The study participants were asked to consider their relationship with the FBI in three major areas: (1) Operations and investigations, (2) training, and (3) technology and law enforcement services. Based on their knowledge and expertise, the respondents were asked to predict how their agencies' relationships with the FBI may evolve during the next century. Further, the interviewees were also asked to comment on any issues that they believed would impact the FBI in the future. This article will report the highlights of this qualitative study. With the above three areas as a starting point, several areas of emphasis for the FBI of the future evolved from the study: Operations, training, technology and science, budget, legislation, international concerns, and privatization. What follows is a compilation of the respondents' opinions and suggestions based on what they viewed to be a predictable environment for the future FBI. OPERATIONS The future FBI should become an informational repository for all categories of reactive crime. In fulfilling this role, the FBI should assemble a national clearinghouse of criminal information, statistics, and a modus operandi (MO) data base that would be available to all members of the law enforcement community. Moreover, joint operations between local police departments and the FBI were predicted to increase and to target specific crimes, such as drug trafficking and street gangs. Those respondents supporting the joint operations concept speculated that increased efficiency and economy will be a likely result to all who participate in such future ventures. TRAINING Based on cost effectiveness and efficiency, the most acclaimed training program for local law enforcement, according to the study, is the FBI's ``Train the Trainer Program.'' This program promotes the development of self-sufficiency in police training as officers who receive this initial training become organizers of similar training programs within their own agencies. This program was also regarded by many responding police executives as an effective vehicle to standardize law enforcement procedures of the future. According to the data collected, there exists a void in senior management training for local law enforcement agencies. This training void should be filled by the FBI. Specifically, senior managers of local police agencies envision regional management training that is shorter in duration and more advanced than courses currently provided at the FBI National Academy's first-tier training for law enforcement executives. TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE The FBI has traditionally been a leader in sophisticated technological and scientific research with practical law enforcement applications. Local law enforcement, according to the results of the study, expects the FBI to continue to conduct research and development of future forensic and technological advances. The FBI Training Academy initiatives in computer science, career criminal research, and offender behavioral profiling were frequently cited as successful examples of research and development achievements that are in keeping with these future expectations and needs of the local law enforcement community. Beyond these core issues (operations, training, and technology and science), interviewees provided insights about such future issues as budget, legislation, international concerns, and privatization. BUDGET International, Federal, and local law enforcement executives were in consensus that obtaining adequate funding in the future will be difficult. In particular, they anticipate that there will be increased competition for decreased funding within the Federal law enforcement community. On the other hand, some respondents from the academic community and private sector envision future budgetary increases for Federal law enforcement. Should funding decline, one response suggested by many law enforcement executives would be to rely more on technological innovation and, where possible, to share expenses with other agencies. Also, joint technological development achieved by the FBI and other law enforcement agencies could result in reducing individual agency research and development outlays, while ensuring greater interagency system-and-equipment compatibility. Another suggested response to diminishing budgetary resources was to combine forces to more efficiently and cost effectively attack mutual crime problems. Merging personnel could take several forms, including expanding the existing task force concept now employed by Federal, State and local agencies. According to many foreign law enforcement executives, more complex strategies would include the exchange of FBI Special Agents with personnel of international law enforcement agencies. This was also viewed as a positive response to growing international crime. LEGISLATION To address evolving crime problems, future legislative initiatives will be required in order to equip adequately the FBI and other Federal, State, local and international law enforcement agencies. Respondents believed that the FBI will be expected to initiate and secure passage of such future legislation. One specific area that will receive future international legislative attention is computer crime. In fact, in a July 1988, report, the International Chamber of Commerce articulated a number of topical issues that needed to be addressed in order to combat this growing crime problem. Accordingly, investigation of computer crime, as well as the more traditional international crimes, including drug trafficking, terrorism and fraud, is most difficult due to the incompatibility of legal systems among involved countries. For example, a criminal act in one country may not be a criminal act in another country. Therefore, efforts to standardize laws across international boundaries will remain a priority well into the future. Even though compatibility of criminal law among nations is not yet a reality, there is reason for optimism. In 1988 the United Nations Conference for Narcotics Legislation resulted in a draft proposal entitled ``United Nations Convention Against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances.'' This draft provides a strong legal basis for resolving many of the compatibility issues now present in the international arena. INTERNATIONAL CONCERNS Well into the future, law enforcement organizations of developed, industrialized nations will find that problems associated with increased global immigration will become aggravated. People from repressive and developing countries are increasingly searching for economic, political, and social freedom. Moreover, inexpensive international air travel, an increase in multi-national corporations, an expanding base of international commerce, and economic interdependence among nations are important factors that have influenced increased global migration patterns. The challenge posed to law enforcement now developing in the host countries is how to provide the full range of required law enforcement services to diverse communities. Many of the compelling forces compressing the world and its peoples into closer personal and business associations are similarly pressing members of the international law enforcement community into new and innovative relationships. Due to its resource base, jurisdictional span, and operational expertise, the FBI is increasingly viewed as the U. S. law enforcement agency that should achieve and sustain a prominent leadership presence in the international law enforcement arena. One such force, the increasing international character of crime, will most certainly generate the need for more FBI international cooperation and stronger liaison programs. Other important features of an expanding FBI international leadership role are likely to include laboratory assistance, technology sharing, information exchanges and reciprocal training initiatives. According to respondents, this role should also include FBI sponsorship of international symposiums where problems and new initiatives can be widely discussed. Another compelling force, the increased investment of foreign money into American businesses and properties, could well provide the financial basis on which international crime groups will expand their foothold in the United States. This force will require the FBI to exchange criminal intelligence and criminal history information with members of the international law enforcement community on an ever- increasing scale. There will also be a parallel need for the foreign law enforcement community to establish quid-pro-quo relationships with local law enforcement agencies in the United States in order to exchange essential criminal intelligence. According to study findings, the FBI is in an excellent position to serve as a valuable intermediary in this regard because foreign law enforcement agencies often find the overlapping character of U.S. law enforcement agencies confusing. For example, foreign agencies get confused when several U.S. law enforcement agencies, each with legitimate and justifiable investigative interests, make separate inquiries on the same criminal investigation. Further, when a U.S. law enforcement officer visits the headquarters of a foreign agency to transact business without advanced notice to that agency, additional confusion occurs. From another perspective, the United States has traditionally experienced crime trends 5 to 10 years before they are encountered in other countries. Accordingly, many believe that the FBI should host international discussions on crime trends with appropriate foreign and U.S. law enforcement officials. The purpose of these discussions would be to provide results of crime trend analysis and to share information regarding successful and unsuccessful strategies used against various crime problems. POLICE PRIVATIZATION One issue that repeatedly surfaced during interviews with law enforcement executives worldwide was the trend toward police privatization. While some law enforcement executives view this trend with great concern, others see much benefit. A number of senior police officials speculate that the future police community will separate into three distinct strata public, private and corporate. This stratification will continue to evolve from the present trend toward police privatization. PUBLIC Public police agencies may well be victimized in the future by underfunding, understaffing, lack of proper equipment, and inadequate training. These conditions will encourage a trend toward privatization. It was further speculated by respondents that this underfunding of some public police organizations may impede their ability to attract or retain well-educated applicants, thus diminishing future expectations of high performance and professional standards. Moreover, due to the growth and effectiveness of private and corporate police functions, public police departments will find their services relegated more toward the problems of the urban poor. PRIVATE On the other hand, private police departments will be organized to service the more affluent segments of our society, and officers associated with those departments will be expected to adhere to high professional standards. Respondents believed that these officers may likely be better educated, trained, equipped, and paid than their public counterparts. CORPORATE The growth of corporate policing has established what may be regarded as quasi-criminal justice systems in many of our major corporations. The expansion of this phenomenon is expected to continue well into the future. Corporate security investigators and auditors already conduct investigations regarding a wide range of financial crimes, including credit card fraud, computer fraud, and embezzlement. In many cases, corporations, not the courts, decide the disposition of these crimes. For example, major corporate embezzlement, reaching into hundreds of thousands of dollars, often results only in the forced resignation of the offender, not prosecution in a court of law. Corporations lack confidence in the ability of law enforcement to address these investigations in a manner that will protect sensitive corporate business interests. In recognition of these circumstances, the law enforcement community should seek to engage in closer and more effective working relationships with the major corporations in order to better understand each other's values, motivations, and roles. Only through greater understanding and mutual trust will essential law enforcement relationships with corporate America be built. CONCLUSION What exactly will the working environment of the FBI and law enforcement be in the year 2000? No one can be sure; however, each member of the law enforcement community must carefully contemplate its evolving role and responsibilities. Accordingly, each must initiate a comprehensive plan for the expected future. Such a plan must address several factors, including the development of a clear understanding of the community to be served, the potential for change over time, and the projection of the future crime trends. Additionally, any plan for the future must face the likelihood of dwindling budgets, expanding international relationships, and increased police privatization. While the future for neither the FBI nor any law enforcement agency can be certain, it can be planned for responsibly by men and women with courage and vision. About the authors: Deputy Assistant Director Richard C. Sonnichsen, Unit Chief/ Special Agent Gail O. Buron, and Special Agent Thomas Lyons are assigned to the FBI's Office of Planning, Evaluation and Audits at FBI Headquarters in Washington, DC.